Mission Produce: Future growth potential in the global avocado market.
Mar 9th 2023, 9:17 pm
Analysis: Part 1 - Analysis of Performance In the three months ended January 31, 2023, Mission Produce experienced a decline of $3.1 million or 1% in net sales compared to the same period last year. This was mainly due to lower sales in the Marketing and Distribution segment, which was partially offset by the revenue consolidation from the Blueberries segment. The decrease in the Marketing and Distribution segment was due to a 27% decrease in average per-unit avocado sales prices, which was overcome by an increase in avocado volume sold of 14% driven by higher industry supply out of Mexico during the quarter. As per the company's statements, the operating results of their businesses are significantly impacted by the price and volume of fruit they farm, source and distribute. Thus, the decline in avocado prices may have had an adverse impact on the company's financial performance. However, the increase in volume may have mitigated some of these impacts. Additionally, the revenue consolidation from the Blueberries segment resulted in an increase in net sales. Part 2 - Forward Looking Analysis As a world leader in the sourcing, production, and distribution of fresh avocados, Mission Produce is well-positioned to benefit from the growing global demand for avocados. According to statistics, the global avocado market size is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 5% during the forecast period (2021-2026). The increasing awareness about the health benefits of avocados is one of the key factors driving the growth. Moreover, the company has been expanding its operations globally, including in regions such as Peru and other areas of Latin America. This expansion can provide the company with additional revenue streams and help them diversify their operations. As per the CEO, Steve Barnard, in a recent earnings call, the company is optimistic about the future and is focused on enhancing their operations and capabilities while strengthening their balance sheet. The company has been investing in and scaling their technology and logistics capabilities, which can help them gain a competitive edge in the market. Additionally, the company's strong relationships with growers and suppliers can provide them with a reliable source of produce, ensuring continuity in their operations. However, there are certain risks and challenges that the company may face. Fluctuations in market prices and the volume of produce can impact the company's financial performance. Changes in consumer tastes and preferences, food safety advisories, and weather conditions can also negatively impact the company's operations. Overall, considering the growing demand for avocados and the company's expansion plans and investments, Mission Produce may be well-positioned for future growth. However, investors should closely monitor any potential risks and challenges that may impact the company's performance in the future.