American Financial Group Inc

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

Part 1: Performance Analysis

American Financial Group Inc (AFGI) reported net earnings of $212 million for the first three months of 2023, which represents a decrease from the $290 million reported for the same period in 2022. The company's primary operations are in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses. The decrease in net earnings is primarily attributed to lower returns on the company's alternative investment portfolio (partnerships and similar investments and AFG-managed CLOs) when compared to the exceptionally strong performance of this portfolio in the prior year period, lower underwriting profit, and higher realized losses on securities. However, the impact of higher yields on fixed maturity investments partially offset these items.

AFGI's financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows are impacted by the economic, legal, and regulatory environment. The company's management believes that inflation (including social inflation), supply chain disruption, labor shortages, banking system instability, and other economic conditions may impact premium levels, loss cost trends, and investment returns. However, AFGI's strong financial position, current liquidity, and capital at its subsidiaries will give the company the flexibility to continue to respond to the ongoing uncertainties presented by the macro-economic environment, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and any lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Part 2: Forward-Looking Analysis

AFGI's management expects continued premium growth and strong underwriting results in the ongoing favorable property and casualty insurance market. The company's deployment of cash during the elevated interest rate environment (since early 2022) will continue to have a positive impact on investment income on fixed maturity investments throughout 2023. However, certain factors such as changes in interest and inflation rates, currency fluctuations, changes in insurance law or regulation, levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather, disruption caused by cyber-attacks or other technology breaches or failures, and competitive pressures may affect the company's financial condition and results of operations in the future.

Management's plans to acquire Crop Risk Services (CRS) and the expected performance of the CRS business under the ownership of AFG are also expected to impact the company's future performance. Additionally, uncertainties presented by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and any lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may also impact the company's future performance.

In conclusion, American Financial Group Inc. has reported a decline in net earnings for the first three months of 2023 compared to the corresponding period in 2022. While the uncertainties presented by the macro-economic environment, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and any lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic remain challenges, the company's management expects continued premium growth and strong underwriting results in the ongoing favorable property and casualty insurance market. The company's strong financial position, current liquidity, and capital at its subsidiaries give it the flexibility to effectively address and respond to these uncertainties. The planned acquisition of CRS and the expected performance of the CRS business under AFGI's ownership may also impact the company's future performance.

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Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)]

AFGI reports Q1 earnings drop but expected to thrive in favorable market

Form 8-K - Current report - Item 2.02 Item 9.01

Form 8-K - Current report - Item 8.01 Item 9.01

Form 10-K - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405]

AFG's Q4 2022 performance disappoints; earns $276m vs $355m in 2021##:
Current Analysis##:
AFG reported Q4 2022 net income of $276m vs $355m last year. The decrease was due to lower alternative investment portfolio returns against the very strong performance of this portfolio in Q4 2021, along with lower underwriting profit in crop operations. These items were partially offset by higher investment income other than from alternative investments. 

Forward-Looking Analysis##: 
Management expects continued premium growth and strong underwriting results in the property and casualty insurance market. Deployment of cash in the rising interest rate environment in 2023 will impact fixed maturity investment returns positively. The ongoing economic and regulatory environment uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, and COVID-19 pandemic may impact premium levels and investment returns. AFG has the flexibility to respond timely, having financial strength and its subsidiaries with required capital levels. AFG reported cash and investments of approx. $879m and $500m credit lines.

Announcement: AFG 10-K Annual Report

Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend]

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

AFGI reports Q1 earnings drop but expected to thrive in favorable market

AFGI reports Q1 earnings drop but expected to thrive in favorable market

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

Announcement: AFG 8-K Special Filing

Announcement: AFG 10-K Annual Report

Announcement: AFG 10-K Annual Report

Announcement: AFG SC 13G/A Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals - amendment

Announcement: AFG SC 13G/A Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals - amendment